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OECD case study on innovation in energy technologiesFuel Cell Innovation in GermanyJürgen Wengel, Elna SchirrmeisterFraunhofer ISIInternational Conference on Innovation inEnergy TechnologiesSeptember 29-30, 2003Washington, DCISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Content1. Background and framework conditions2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germanyactors / networks / initiatives3. Policy instruments and options - lead markets?4. Conclusions and outlook (measuring R&D productivity?)Sourcesz OECD secretariat bibliometric analysisz Database* at Fraunhofer ISI of 474 hydrogen related projectsand patents with German participationz Specific recherches on patents, publications and universityresearch (via internet) in Germany plus official statisticsz Several projects and continuous monitoring of trendsin fuel cell technologies at Fraunhofer ISIFolie 2ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research* with the support of van Giessel/Ros as part of their masterthesis „The affect of community dynamics and knowledge onthe acceleration of technology development for the transitiontowards a hydrogen based transport system in Germany“ for thestudy of Science & Innovation Management at UtrechtUniversity

1. Background and framework conditionsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Characteristics of the German Innovation Systemz highly differentiated and decentralized (e.g. universities)z no extensive priority setting (e.g. with respect to subsidies)z strength in advanced technology branches: automobile, mechanical engineering, chemical industryz weakness to link up with leading edge technologies: information technology, new materialsfuel cell technology roots in all above fieldsz decreasing long term orientationno short term market introduction of fuel cells expectedz national orientation of R&D, technology policy dominatesz private industry performs more than 60% of researchz classical strengths are getting less importantlead markets will become more significantFolie 4ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

German Federal Expenditure on Science, Research andDevelopment in Energy Technologies700630615Energy research and energy technology in totalin millions of Euro600Renewable energy and energy 20002001*2002** budgetedFolie 5Source; BMBF fact report research 2002ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

German Industry s R&D Expenses 1999and Their Distribution Over R&D FieldsBasic research 4%(1.7 bill. )External R&D 15%(5.9 bill. )8,3bill. 3,0bill. Applied research81%(31.6 bill. 0bill. AerospaceSelected fields of applied research1,5bill. Energy productionand distributionFolie 6Source; Stifterverband Wissenschaftsstatistik 1999ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Contribution of Different Sectors to Applied R&D on EnergyProduction and Distribution Products0,06Mechanicalengineering0,10Electrical engineering,optics, etc.0,50*0,86VehicleconstructionOthersectors* figure estimatedShare in applied R&D in billion Folie 7Source; Stifterverband Wissenschaftsstatistik 1999ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Development of Patents and Publications in the Area of Fuel Cells300"Triadic"(EU, US, J) patent families250International publications (ETDE)German patents 99819992000Folie 8ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchSource: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study oninnovation in the energy sector, Fraunhofer ISI analysisof German patent data

International Orientation of Hydrogen or Fuel Cell Projects withGerman ParticipationProjects withinternational partners12%Projects withGermanpartnersonlyProjects with Europeanpartners CanadaUSAFolie 9Source: Fraunhofer ISI databank on hydrogen relatedprojects (n 231, multiple participation of countries)ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Germany s Innovation Strategy in the Fuel Cell AreaAccording to Publications and Patents Analysesand differences to .GermanyJapanz industrystronglycontributes toscientificknowledgez work on all types of fuel cells,AFC and MCFC German specialtiesz average player in the international networkfocus on EUz highest number of publications andpatents in EU but internationally lowz rather low output per population butincreasingUSAz „spider“ ininternationalnetworksz strongindustry-publicinteractionz strong public research centresz business internal links dominateFolie 10ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany- actorsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Distribution Among Institutional Sectors of Fuel Cell Publications1990-2000 in Selected CountriesHigher educationGovernmentPrivate non-profitBusiness %60%70%80%90%100%Folie 12ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchSource: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovationin the energy sector

German Scientific Research Related to Fuel Cell TechnologiesAround 30 % of German universitiespursue fuel cell related researchactivities (status 7/2003):HAW HamburgHTW SaarlandRWTH AachenTH KarlsruheTU BerlinTU ClausthalTU DarmstadtTU DresdenTU HamburgHarburgTU MünchenUni BayreuthLeading German actors in fuel cell relatedresearch by number of publicationsbetween 2000 -2002 contained in SCI:Uni BochumUni BonnUni Duisburg-EssenUni FreiburgUni GöttingenUni HannoverUni KielUni MagdeburgUni MainzUni PaderbornUni StuttgartUni UlmResearch Centre Jülich - Werkstoffe und Verfahren (80)German Aerospace Center, DLR (32)Max-Planck-Institute - Festkörperforschung (20)Technical University Munich (14)Centre for Solar & Hydrogen Research, Ulm (12)Technical University Karlsruhe (12)SIEMENS AG (11)University Ulm (10)Hahn-Meitner-Institute (10)University Stuttgart (9)Fraunhofer Institute Solar Energy Systems (9)Research Centre Jülich - Festkörperphysik (9)Max-Planck-Institute - Kohlenstoffforschung (7)Folie 13ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchSource: Fraunhofer ISI enquiry of universitywebsites and http://www.forschungsportal.net,analysis of SCI/ISI databank

Leading German Actors in Fuel Cell Research by Patents(DPA until 2001 in the fuel nSIEMENS AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (MUENCHEN)BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS AG (KIRCHHEIM / TECK-NABERN)FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JUELICH GMBH (JUELICH)DAIMLERCHRYSLER AG (STUTTGART)EMITEC GESELLSCHAFT FUER EMISSIONSTECHNOLOGIE MBH (LOHMAR)OMG-Degussa AG & CO. KG (HANAU)BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (MUENCHEN)MTU GMBH (FRIEDRICHSHAFEN)ATECS MANNESMANN AG (DUESSELDORF)ROBERT BOSCH GMBH (STUTTGART)CELANESE VENTURES GMBH (FRANKFURT)ELRINGKLINGER AG (DETTINGEN)FRAUNHOFER-GESELLSCHAFT E.V. (MUENCHEN)MANNESMANN AG (DUESSELDORF)BASF AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (LUDWIGSHAFEN)XCELLSIS GMBH (KIRCHHEIM/TECK-NABERN)Folie 14ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany- actors- networksISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell FhGResearch ordMTUISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchDegusssa/OMGEmitecNumber of joint public projects:more than 10 co-operations6-10 co-operations3-5 co-operations1 or 2 co-operations

Fuel Cell Strategies of Passenger Car Manufacturers (Date 2003)FZ JülichLBSTDLRResearch centrersCo-operation but independentown stack developmentToyotaOwns one third of drogen combustionengine APUMazdaVolvoR&D centres in GermanyCo-operation/dependenciesOwn stack developmentStacks deliveredUTCDelphiContractual agreementproject cooperationsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchFolie 17

2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany- actors- networks- initiativesISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Efforts and Clustering of Fuel Cell Activities in GermanyEuropean Union FrameworkProgrammes on ResearchResearch and demonstrationprojects of federal government (ZIP)Länder government subsidies forresearch and demonstrationPlatzhalter für DateinamenCompetence NetworkFuel Cells, Northrhine-WestfaliaResearch Alliance Fuel Cells,Baden-WurttembergImportant actorsindustryresearch centresautomotive groups research centresHydrogen and FuelCellsInitiative, HassiaHydrogenInitiative, BavariaFolie 19ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

The Fuel Cell Network NRWwww.fuellcells-nrw.deR&DInstitutes20 %Others11 %Privates3%Founded 2000, 280 members,about 40 NRW-funded fuel cellprojects (volume of 77 Mio. ,42 Mio. public funding).Companies66 %¾ Strengthening of the industryand science in NRW in thefield of fuel cell technology.Source: Landesinitiative Zukunftsenergien NRWISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Fuel Cell Research Alliance al TechnologyUniversity of KarlsruheFounded 2000, 14 membersUniversity of StuttgartKarlsruhePfinztalGerman AerospaceCentre (DLR)- Institute for TechnicalThermodynamicsInstitute of TextileTechnology andProcessEngineeringDenkendorfMax Planck Institute forSolid State Research¾ Coordinating researchactivities¾ Strengthening technologytransferFraunhofer-InstituteInterfacial Engineeringand BiotechnologyUniversity of UlmFraunhoferInstitute SolarEnergy SystemsCentre for SolarEnergy andHydrogenResearchFreiburgSource: FABZ secretariatISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

The Bavarian Hydrogen Initiativewww.wiba.deFounded 1996,30 projects witha total financialamountof 70 Mio.(ca. 50 % publicfunding).Source: wiba secretariatISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Promotional Networks Let by Industry in GermanyTransport Energy Strategy (TES)The Transport Energy Strategy (TES) is aninitiative launched by the vehicle manufacturersBMW, DaimlerChrysler, General MotorsEurope (Opel), MAN and Volkswagenand the energy suppliersARAL, BP, RWE, Shell and Total FinaElf,supported by the Federal Government, with theFederal Ministry of Transport, Building andHousingacting as central coordinator, with the aim ofdeveloping and implementing a strategy for themedium-term, nationwide market introduction ofan alternative fuel for transportJoint undertaking of fourcompanies. Their common goalis to make "compact”, naturalgas-fueled stationary fuel cellsfor residential needs technicallyand economically competitive.Fuel Cell Initiative (IBZ)?Initative onportableapplicationsFolie 23ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Initiatives for Vocational Training in Germany in the Context ofthe Innovation Process of Fuel Cells Future investment programme (BMWA-ZIP): 7 projects referring to training on fuel cells,among these: support of competence centers in Ulm (ZSW) and Jülich (ResearchCenter), study about the demand of information and training for craftsmen (HPI, L-BSystemtechnik, Fraunhofer ISI) Elektroausbildungszentrum Aalen e.V. (eaz): Preliminary study: Fuel Cell – Challengeand chances for the craftsmenPlatzhalter für Dateinamen Network for fuel cell training (www.bz-bildung.de) BIBB, Forschungsgruppe Praxisnahe Berufsbildung (FPB): Arbeitskreis„Qualifizierungsoffensive Brennstoffzelle“ IBZ: Initiative of gas and energy supplier (http://www.initiative-brennstoffzelle.de)Folie 24ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

3. Policy instruments and options - lead marketsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

The Innovation Policy Tool Box and Fuel Cell TechnologySupply(TechnologyPush)Indirect-specific promotion (supplier)Research groupsPre-normative researchRisk capitalR&D projectsCooperative research projects (suppliers)Demonstration projectsFuel cell technologiesCooperative projects (supplier - user)Indirect-specific promotion (users)Studies (state of the art, international comparison, evaluation, etc.)Technology transfer and networkingAwareness measuresPublic/cooperative procurementDemand(TechnologyPull)Industrial working groupsDiffusion policies (taxation, grants, .)Basic research/developmentIndustrial application/diffusionFolie 26ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Lead Markets for Fuel Cell Applications? - the Example of CarsPressure for innovative changeWorking system of marketdevelopmentFavourable tax and politicalframework conditionsJBeneficial accreditation systemsUSAHigh (consumer-) readyness toadopt innovationsHigh quality expectationsEUDemand for innovations relativelyindependent of priceHigh income per capitaRemarks on current situation in automotiveDGeneral characteristics oflead markets True for all the countries here - Germany often shows early diffusion of newtechnical features in cars -- ? ?--? ----?-?Only in high-end segmentSystems differ, California takes lead in FC carsEmissions in urban areas / strong dependanceon oil, but consumptions per car decreasingImplementing the infrastructure still missingeverywhereNo trend in taxation predictable, low taxation ofgas in USA not advantageousFolie 27ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Potential change in the component structure of the propulsion100%90%80%3,000 2,000 4%5%4%11%Tank20%AbgasanlageExhaust system20%16%70%60%3,000 9%4%KühlsystemCooling kMotor VMStacku.ICEbzw.or stackandGaserzeugunggas generation45%32%10%0%BrennstoffzelleFuel cellMethanoltankMethanol tankVerbrennungsCombustionmotorengineISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchBrennstoffzelleFuel cellWasserstofftankHydrogen tankFolie 28

Changes in Vocational Training of Automotive Mechanics in theContext of Automotive Application of Fuel CellsDiesel engineOtto engineBasics of manufacturingtechnologies, electronics,materials etc.Car systemCar electronicsElectric power supply andstarting systemChassisPlatzhalter für DateinamenPower transmissionBrake systemLighting, ignitionnot influenced by thetechnology switchsubjects influencedCar bodyomitted subjectsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchFolie 29Reference: Rahmenlehrplan zur Verordnung über dieBerufausbildung zum/zur Kraftfahrzeugmechaniker/-in, 1989

4. Conclusions and outlookISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Conclusionsz Scientific (publications) and technological (patents) output on fuel cell technologies is(still) on the rise. In Germany, the growth seems superproportional.z According to patents and scientific publications, Germany is among the key players.z The technological focus in the last decade has been on PEMFC and SOFC but DMFC,AFC and MCFC are recognised options.z International co-operation seems to be very broad in the USA while Germany soverseas network is almost completely based on DC and GM/Opel activities.z National Innovation Systems in the area of fuel cell technologies differ. In Germany,public research centres play an important role. Industry concentrates on technology andinternal linkages. In fuel cell innovation Sectoral Systems interact.z It is not yet clear which and where lead markets will evolve but there are candidates.z Public promotion: extension from technology push towards demand oriented measuresto be put on the agenda, yet limited use in Germany.Folie 31ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Questionsz What could be the role of Germany in the technological and commercial race towardsfuel cell applications within the European Union?Does the current input (subsidies, RTD personal, investments, .) relate well enough tothe output (publications, patents, products, .) ?z Should and could international co-operation be improved ?How and in which areas (standards, science, particular technological fields, .) ?z What could be transition paths towards the long-term vision of the hydrogen society ?How could lead markets be developed?Folie 32ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Considerations on Fuel Cell R&D ProductivityAssessment in GermanyEffort/inputOutput (numbers?) personal papers investments patents material licenses project funding prototypes etc. image .Impact sales employment wealth improvedsustainability etc. Full picture of R&D expenditures/effort hardly to achieve. Distinction of input (publications?) and output (patents?) depending on perspective. More relevant would be impact but - apart from consensus about criteria there is hardly any impact, yet.Cases in niche markets? Industry survey on efforts to date and assessments.ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Thank you for your attention.Additional overheadsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Theoretical Background - Innovation System ApproachDemandConsumers (final demand)Producers (intermediate demand)Education andResearch SystemIndustrial SystemLarge companiesMature SMEsNew, technologybased firmsFramework ConditionsFinancial environment; taxation andincentives; propensity to innovationand entrepreneurship; mobility .IntermediariesResearchinstitutesBrokersThe potential reachof public policies .Professionaleducation andtrainingPoliticalSystemGovernmentHigher educationand researchGovernancePublic sectorresearchRTD policiesInfrastructureBanking,venture capitalIPR andinformationInnovation andbusiness supportStandards andnormsFolie 35ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchSource: Technopolis 2000, modifiedand extended by S. Kuhlmann, ISI

Relative Output of Patents in Relation to Publicationson Fuel Cells in Selected Countries 1990 - 1996Denmark(0,13 / 0,55)Publications per million 5"Triadic" patent families per million populationISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchFolie 36Source: Draft working paper of OECDsecretariat 7/2003 in the framework ofOECD/TIP case study on innovation in theenergy sector

Output of Patents in Relation to Publications on Fuel Cellsin Selected Countries 1990 -1996240EUscience orientedNumber of manyNetherlandsCanadaSwitzerlandtechnology orientedFrance0Belgium01020304050607080Number of "triadic" patent familiesISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research90Folie 37Source: Draft working paper of OECDsecretariat 7/2003 in the framework ofOECD/TIP case study on innovation in theenergy sector

Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell ResearchLindeSiemensMesserGriesheim11 26DC2 Liquide1025620312630Number of joint projectsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research4045060Folie 38

Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell ofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchDegusssa/OMGEmitecNumber of joint public projects:more than 10 co-operations6-10 co-operations3-5 co-operations1 or 2 co-operations

Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 1999MazdaAnteil von Ford33 %KMarkteintritt2004Pkw Sparte ab1999 bei FordBallardPowerSystemsLVolkswagenLKToyotaNecars, Produktion 2004KKVolvoKDaimlerChryslerFord2004, Hybridfahrzeug PRIUSEShellKRenaultL LieferabkommenE EntwicklungsvertragK KooperationFIATInternational E SiemensFuel CellsNissanbis 2004 serienreifes Auto,ZAFIRAExxonEMarkteintritt2004; Koop. mitDe NoraGM/ OpelHonda2005/6MobilBMW/ RoverPeugeotCitroenBSZ für NebenaggregateEinsatzfeld Van,De NoraFolie 40ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research

Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 2001Close cooperationbut each ownstack developmentToyotaFrenchresearch initiativeCar production at FordPSAHyundaiGM/OpelBMWIFCDelphiRenaultMANDe NoraCooperation, sharesBallard, Ecostar, Xcellsis33% share in BusNissanHondaFIATRoverPlug PowerCooperation/involvementown stack developmentCelaneseindividual stacks deliveredfixed supply contractsISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchFolie 41

Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 2003Enge Kooperationaber jeweils rschungsinitiativeNissanPkw Sparte bei FordPSARenaultVolvoVWDaihatsuHyundaiEnge KooperationFordDC33 % Anteil an iligungeigene StackentwicklungEinzelne Stacks geliefertFeste LieferverträgeFolie 42ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchQuelle: Projekt „Anforderungen an das Handwerkdurch die Innovation Brennstoffzelle“

Relative Scientific and Technological Specialization Profiles ofJapan, USA and EU Towards PEMFC and SOFC (out of a range of 7 types)Relation of share in sub-field to share in all 0,40,2PEMFCSOFCPEMFCSOFC0Publications 1990-2000ISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation Research„Triadic“ patent families 1990-1996Folie 43Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study oninnovation in the energy sector

Potential changes in supplier 0%70%FahrzeugindustrieAutombile industry19%63%32%Iron, emie17%11%40%ElektrotechnikElectrical Fuel cellMethanoltankMethanol tankVerbrennungsCombustionmotorengineISIFraunhofer InstituteSystems andInnovation ResearchBrennstoffzelleFuel cellWasserstofftankHydrogen tankFolie 44

Uni Göttingen Uni Hannover Uni Kiel Uni Magdeburg Uni Mainz Uni Paderborn Uni Stuttgart Uni Ulm Around 30 % of German universities pursue fuel cell related research . Indirect-specific promotion